Xi Jinping's presence at the upcoming G20 summit seems increasingly unlikely, with China's Foreign Ministry announcing that the delegation will be led by Premier Li Qiang. This marks a significant departure from the norm, as it would be the first time since the inaugural G20 summit in 2008 that a Chinese leader is not in attendance. In 2020 and 2021, Xi Jinping participated virtually due to the pandemic.
While U.S. President Joe Biden expressed his hopes for Xi's attendance in Delhi, U.S. officials have downplayed the likelihood of a face-to-face meeting between the two leaders, citing uncertainty surrounding Xi's attendance.
Some analysts speculate that Xi Jinping's absence could be perceived as a diplomatic snub towards the host country, India, with whom China has ongoing border disputes. It may also be part of China's broader strategy to emphasize alternative multilateral groups over those dominated by the United States.
Xi Jinping's recent participation in the BRICS summit in South Africa reflects China's effort to promote this bloc as an alternative to Western-led organizations such as the G20 and G7. China's Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Mao Ning, confirmed Li's leadership of the delegation and did not dispute reports suggesting Xi's absence. It is highly improbable that China's top two leaders would both be absent from the country simultaneously, let alone from the same event.
Wen-ti Sung, a China expert and political scientist at the Australian National University, believes that Xi's decision to skip the G20 summit right after attending the BRICS summit may symbolize his narrative of "east is rising, and the west is falling."
Additionally, Xi's absence may be attributed to avoiding a meeting with Japan's Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, during Japan's Fukushima wastewater release controversy. It could also be seen as an act of solidarity with Russia's President, Vladimir Putin, who is also not attending the G20 and faces an international criminal court arrest warrant for war crimes.
Xi Jinping and Joe Biden, whose administrations are working to mend relations after years of deterioration, last met in person in November, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Indonesia.
Biden, represented by Vice President Kamala Harris at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Indonesia, plans to travel to Vietnam after the G20 summit. During a press conference in Beijing, Mao accused the U.S. of pursuing a "zero-sum cold war mentality" in its dealings with Asian countries and called for adherence to fundamental principles of international relations.
Biden has expressed his intention to "get to see" Xi Jinping, but details remain undisclosed. Another upcoming summit of world leaders is the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco in November. Notably, neither Xi nor Biden attended this week's ASEAN summit, underscoring the ongoing rivalry for influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, suggests that Xi Jinping appears to be setting his own agenda, prioritizing national security and inviting foreign leaders to visit him in China. However, skipping the APEC summit, especially after substantial preparations by the U.S., could have more significant repercussions for China's international standing, as it continues to seek foreign investment.
Among the G20 leaders in attendance are German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron.