Chinese President Xi Jinping is embarking on a significant journey to South Africa, aiming to strengthen China's influence among developing and emerging nations. This move comes at a time when relations between China and the United States are experiencing deep strains, and China is grappling with economic challenges at home.
Xi's three-day state visit includes a summit with leaders from the BRICS emerging economies, marking only his second international trip this year. This stands in stark contrast to his extensive global diplomacy efforts before the COVID-19 pandemic.
His last international visit was in March when he met with his counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in Moscow. During this meeting, both leaders reaffirmed their strategic alignment against the United States and expressed their vision for a new world order that is no longer dominated by Western powers.
For Xi, the BRICS summit presents another opportunity to advance his vision of a more multipolar world and a global order with a greater role for China. The BRICS bloc, consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, represents over 40% of the world's population and shares a desire for a more equitable global order.
According to Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London, Xi's long-term goal is to shift the world order toward a Sino-centric one. To achieve this, it makes sense for China to engage with the Global South, which consists of numerous countries, many of which have authoritarian governance structures.
China's ambassador to South Africa, Chen Xiaodong, emphasized the importance of BRICS as a platform for cooperation among emerging and developing nations, calling it the "backbone of international fairness and justice."
Xi's visit to South Africa follows closely on the heels of U.S. President Joe Biden's meetings with the leaders of Japan and South Korea, where they deepened military and economic cooperation and criticized China's behavior in the South China Sea. With China and the United States locked in an intense rivalry, the BRICS platform has gained strategic relevance for Beijing.
Notably, Vladimir Putin will not attend the BRICS summit in person due to an international arrest warrant over alleged war crimes in Ukraine. He will participate via video from Russia.
Despite these global engagements, Xi faces significant domestic challenges. China's much-anticipated economic recovery from COVID-19 lockdowns is faltering, with issues such as a property crisis, mounting local government debt, and deflationary pressure. Youth unemployment rates have hit record highs, prompting the Chinese government to suspend their release.
Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center think tank, highlighted that China's struggling economy constrains Xi's ability to engage in diplomatic initiatives, especially in the Global South. Traditionally, China would offer generous aid and cooperation packages to developing countries, but the current economic state limits these efforts.
Moreover, Chinese citizens have become more skeptical about their government's lavish spending abroad, including the Belt and Road Initiative. As a result, China has become more selective in choosing foreign projects to finance.
Despite economic challenges, China has increased political and military engagement in Africa, focusing on low-cost activities with a high impact. This demonstrates China's continued commitment to the continent, even as funding for major infrastructure projects decreases.
Xi's visit to South Africa marks his first trip to Africa in five years. While his last visit in 2018 included multiple stops across Sub-Saharan Africa, this time, Beijing has not announced any additional stops. During the BRICS summit, Xi will co-chair the China-Africa Leaders' Dialogue with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, demonstrating China's commitment to engaging with African nations.
In total, 69 countries have been invited to the summit, including all African states, highlighting the global significance of this event.