China has been subtly ramping up military pressure on Taiwan over the past year, employing "gray zone" intimidation tactics designed to wear down the self-governing island. These provocative acts stop short of an outright invasion but contribute to an ominous new normal in the Taiwan Strait.
Beijing sends ships and planes to surround Taiwan with growing frequency, including a single-day record of 103 warplanes in September. China also conducts increasingly sophisticated drills that simulate blockading the island. The goal is to coerce and influence Taiwan through harassment without provoking a wider conflict.
The incursions strain Taiwan’s limited defenses as pilots scramble to intercept Chinese jets, raising security costs and crew fatigue. But Taiwan is restricted in how forcefully it can respond and avoid escalation. Surveys show the tactics have so far boosted Taiwanese antipathy toward China rather than fears of invasion.
Still, China could potentially increase pressure by imposing a sustained blockade. The maneuvers highlight Taiwan's vulnerability, as China possesses overwhelming military superiority in numbers and budget. Its "gray zone" playbook also provides real-world practice for possibly imposing its claimed sovereignty over the island.
With pivotal Taiwanese elections upcoming in January, China may intensify activities meant to intimidate voters and influence local politics. But a misfire remains an ever-present danger that could ignite conflict between fundamentally opposed views on Taiwan's status.