The military coup in Niger has disrupted Western counterterrorism efforts in West Africa, causing a new set of obstacles for the Biden administration's campaign against Islamist militants on the continent.
Unlike successful counterterrorism operations in other regions, the Sahel area south of the Sahara, where Al Qaeda and ISIS-linked groups thrive, remains a formidable challenge. Notably, Niger had been a positive outlier this year, experiencing a 49% drop in terrorist attacks against civilians thanks to combined efforts from French, American, and Nigerien forces.
However, the ongoing regional conflict and potential expulsion of Western troops, including 1,100 U.S. personnel, along with the shutdown of U.S. drone bases, could reverse the progress. Beyond the immediate security concerns, the absence of Western troops might empower militant propaganda, recruitment, and the establishment of extremist enclaves. Additionally, Russia's entrance into the region through the Kremlin-backed Wagner private military company could further destabilize the situation.
The gravity of the crisis is highlighted by the escalating death toll and mass displacement in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, spreading unrest to the more affluent coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea.
Niger has been pivotal to the U.S.'s fight against Sahel's Islamist militancy for a decade, but the recent coup has imperiled this partnership. The Pentagon faces tough choices, from formally acknowledging the coup to negotiating a counterterrorism agreement with the junta.
The potential void left by Western forces may pave the way for Wagner to gain influence in Niger, amplifying security and regional stability concerns.
This unpredictable turn of events underscores the dynamic nature of geopolitical landscapes, with significant implications for local and international security.