NIAMEY, Niger — A week has passed since the deadline came and went for rebellious soldiers in Niger to reinstate their ousted president or face possible military intervention. In this ongoing political saga, the junta has yet to yield. Amid the escalating tension, no military action has been taken, and analysts are suggesting that the coup leaders are consolidating their grip on power, edging ahead of the regional organization that issued the ultimatum.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) had sternly given the group of soldiers who had unseated Niger's democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum until last Sunday to release him and restore him to his presidential office. A military intervention threat hung in the balance. Nonetheless, as of today, no boots have hit the ground, and the junta seems to be fortifying its position, experts opine.
ECOWAS had ordered the readiness of a "standby" force to reestablish constitutional order in Niger, with Nigeria, Benin, Senegal, and Ivory Coast pledging their participation. However, the specifics of when and how these troops would deploy remain nebulous. The logistics might well span weeks or even months, all the while the junta's influence seems to solidify. "It looks as though the putschists have won and will stay... The putschists are holding all the cards and have cemented their rule," observed Ulf Laessing, the head of the Sahel program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, a think tank.
The situation is further complicated by the murky path ahead. The ECOWAS defense chiefs' meeting, a pivotal step in the crisis, has been indefinitely postponed. The African Union is poised to convene on Monday to address the Niger crisis, where the Peace and Security Council may potentially override any intervention decision if it deems broader peace and security to be jeopardized.
Despite ECOWAS' initial ultimatum, some analysts speculate that the regional organization is unlikely to resort to military intervention, wary of sparking a civil war. Instead, diplomatic pressure could be channeled towards securing a brief transition period. It's also predicted that Europe and the United States, in order to sustain security cooperation within the region, might ultimately have to acknowledge the junta, albeit reluctantly.
The coup that transpired on July 26 has jolted many Western nations. Niger had been considered a vital partner in tackling the escalating jihadi insurgency in the Sahel region, a conflict-stricken belt south of the Sahara Desert. Western powers like the U.S. and France have heavily invested resources and military support in Niger, emphasizing its significance in the counter-terrorism strategy.
As time stretches on, worries compound over the safety of President Bazoum, who has been confined to his residence alongside his family since the coup. His conditions are reported to be deteriorating, marked by shortages of basic necessities. Additionally, allegations have surfaced that Niger's junta conveyed to a senior U.S. diplomat that they would execute the deposed president if neighboring countries attempted a military intervention.
As the political standoff unfolds, daily life in Niamey carries on. The capital city maintains an air of relative calm, intermingled with sporadic pro-junta demonstrations. Meanwhile, voices in support of the ousted president are swiftly suppressed by security forces. This tense balance highlights the undercurrent of uncertainty that grips the nation.
For now, Nigeriens attempt to navigate these turbulent waters, with some expressing their concern and frustration at the precarious political landscape. In a nation already grappling with economic hardships, the recent sanctions and development aid suspensions imposed by ECOWAS are likely to exacerbate existing challenges.
As the standoff continues and the nation waits on the precipice of uncertainty, the future of Niger remains uncertain, caught between regional demands, international expectations, and the complexities of its internal politics.