The United States and Iran have reached a tentative agreement to swap prisoners, with five Americans being released in exchange for the release of seven Iranians. This is a positive development, as it would bring home Americans who have been held hostage in Iran for years. However, there are still a number of potential pitfalls that could derail the deal.
One concern is that the Iranian government could back out of the deal. The Iranian government has a history of making deals with the United States and then reneging on them. For example, in 2015, Iran agreed to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which placed restrictions on its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. However, in 2018, the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA, and Iran has since resumed some of its nuclear activities. It is possible that the Iranian government could do the same with the prisoner swap, especially if it feels that the United States is not living up to its end of the bargain.
Another concern is that the US Congress could block the deal. The US Congress has the power to block the prisoner swap if it feels that it is not in the best interests of the United States. There are a number of members of Congress who have expressed concerns about the deal, including that it could release dangerous terrorists back into the world. It is possible that Congress could pass legislation to block the deal, or that it could withhold funding for the release of Iranian prisoners.
The families of the American hostages could also oppose the deal. The families of the American hostages who are being held in Iran have been vocal in their opposition to the prisoner swap. They argue that the deal would reward Iran for its hostage-taking and that it would put their loved ones at risk. It is possible that the families could file lawsuits to block the deal, or that they could pressure the Biden administration to abandon it.
Finally, the Iranian people could protest the deal. The Iranian people have been critical of the Iranian government's human rights record, and they may not support the release of American prisoners. If there are large-scale protests against the deal, it could put pressure on the Iranian government to back out of it.
It is important to note that these are just some of the potential pitfalls that could derail the US-Iran prisoner swap. It is possible that the deal will go through smoothly, but there are also a number of factors that could cause it to fail.
The Biden administration is aware of these potential pitfalls, and they are working to mitigate them. However, it is still too early to say whether or not the prisoner swap will be successful. Only time will tell if the United States and Iran can overcome these challenges and bring home the American hostages.